CPI may climb to a new high in July, and the expec

2022-10-12
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CPI may climb to a new high in July, and interest rate hikes are expected to increase. Introduction: the National Bureau of statistics will release July consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data on August 9. Many experts predict that the CPI will remain high in July, even exceeding 6.4% in June, reaching a new high. Financial Research Institute of the development research center of the State Council 3. Security protection: Ba Shu, deputy director

the National Bureau of statistics will release the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data of July on August 9. Many experts predict that the CPI will remain high in July, even exceeding 6.4% in June, reaching a new high

Ba Shusong, deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the development research center of the State Council, said that the CPI rose 6.4% year-on-year in June, mainly driven by the rise in food prices led by pork. In July, even if the fall in international commodity prices can hedge some of the rising price factors, the tail raising factor has also fallen. CPI is only slightly lower than that in June, and is expected to remain above 6%. The price rise in the third quarter may still be high, with a year-on-year increase of more than 5%

analyst lihuiyong believes that the CPI in July is expected to be 6.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous month. He believes that pork and aquatic products in food have become the main force driving the CPI to a new high in July. With the obvious fall of the tail raising factor and the fall of the increase in pork prices, it is expected that the CPI increase will begin to fall in August, and the price increase will fall significantly after October, with an annual increase of 5.2%, showing an inverted U-shaped trend

economist Li Xunlei also holds the same view. He believes that the CPI is expected to reach a new high in July. Although CPI is expected to slow down in the second half of the year, inflationary pressure is still great, and it is expected that the annual CPI will be 5% - 5.2%. Economist Lu Zhengwei also believes that the CPI in July will continue to rise to about 6.5%, and the month on month ratio will continue to be significantly higher than the historical normal level, and it is likely that it is not the peak of the year

the forward-looking report of macroeconomic data also predicts that the CPI in July will rise by 6.5% year-on-year, and will reach a new high. The report pointed out that although meat prices fell slightly in mid and late July, other food prices rose, making the overall level of food prices higher than that in June. It is expected that non food prices will be basically stable in July, and food prices will rise by about 1.5% month on month, which will drive CPI to rise by 0.5% month on month in July

with the push-pull stainless steel window jg/t 41 ⑴ more than 999 institutions predict that the year-on-year increase in CPI in July may still be at a high level, and the market's expectation that interest rates may continue to rise in August is increasing. Ba Shusong said that if the total weight of the three plastic parts in the third quarter has reached 220 kg, and the monthly CPI has increased by more than 5% year-on-year, there should be one or two interest rate increases. On the one hand, the price increase is still at a high level, and raising interest rates is conducive to curbing inflation expectations; At the same time, due to the obvious rise of the real capital interest rate in the market, the interest rate increase is only a policy action to correct the negative interest rate and narrow the gap with the market financing interest rate, which has limited impact on the real economy

Political Commissar Lu said that considering that preventing inflation is still the primary task at present, and the development of the current price situation also means that the task of forming 23 capture groups of CPI control within 5% throughout the year will be quite arduous. Therefore, it is expected that interest rates will continue to increase in August, but the monthly deposit reserve ratio may not increase during the year

Political Commissar Lu believes that raising interest rates is generally conducive to curbing the strong speculative atmosphere on assets and returning business operations to their main business; At the same time, raising interest rates will reduce the excessive occupation of limited credit resources by large enterprises, which is conducive to the allocation of valuable credit resources to small and medium-sized enterprises

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