CPI is expected to peak in June and July, and the

CPI is expected to peak in June and July, and the expectation of interest rate increase or decrease

CPI is expected to peak in June and July, and the expectation of interest rate increase or decrease

China Construction machinery information

Guide: as a garlic trader in Tianji Town, Chengwu County, Shandong Province, Yao Xueyuan found that the price of dried garlic since June is still not low. On June 11, he went through alleys and villages to buy garlic at a price of 3 per kilogram 5 yuan, which is higher than the price not long ago. For example, not long ago, the price of wet garlic was 1.8 yuan a kilo, and the total price of dry garlic was about

as a garlic trader in Tianji Town, Chengwu County, Shandong Province, Yao Xueyuan found that the price of dried garlic since June is still not low

on June 11, he went through alleys and villages to buy garlic at a price of 3 per kilogram 5 yuan, which is higher than the price not long ago. For example, not long ago, the price of wet garlic was 1.8 yuan a Jin, and the total price of dry garlic was about 2 5 yuan a Jin. At this time last year, the purchase price of dried garlic was only 1 per kilogram 8 yuan

"now the price is high, and farmers are very willing to sell it." Yaoxueyuan, who is nervous about buying garlic, said to

Chengwu County and Jinxiang County are the famous hometown of garlic in China. Yaoxueyuan will wholesale garlic to larger traders after purchasing it. Symptoms of big trade: after the task piston rises, the traders will either store it or transfer it to markets all over the country

garlic, which accounts for a small proportion of household consumption, is not a price sample that the National Bureau of statistics focuses on monitoring

however, the next trend of Chinese prices can still be seen in garlic. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on June 11, generally speaking, the gap between trapezoidal lead screws in food prices in May was relatively large, up 6.1% year-on-year. Affected by its and residential prices, the national consumer price (CPI) rose by 3.1% year-on-year. This is the first time since this year that the monthly CPI has exceeded the national regulation target line of 3% year-on-year

Sheng Laiyun, spokesman of the National Bureau of statistics, pointed out that due to the influence of the tail raising factor of prices, the peak of year-on-year rise in prices may be in June and July, so the influence of the tail raising factor will be relatively weakened in the third quarter

"from the perspective of the whole year, the price control is about 3%, which should be said to be basic. Although the pressure is relatively large, through efforts, the macro expected goal is likely to be achieved."

Bank of communications related research these are very important. The research believes that as China's economic growth tends to be flat, the inflationary pressure is somewhat reduced. This has significantly reduced the necessity of raising interest rates in the recent period

the tail raising factor leads to the rise in prices

Sheng Laiyun pointed out that the Ju bridge expansion joint mechanical property experimental machine is mainly composed of a loading host, a hydraulic pump station, an electrical and industrial control computer measurement and control system, (American Standard Test special configuration) and so on. The consumer price rose by 3.1% year-on-year. There are two main reasons. One is the influence of tail curling factors. In May last year, CPI was relatively low. Last year, the price trend was from low to high. The CPI growth rate in December last year was 1.9%, which will certainly have a big tail raising factor for this year's price rise. The impact of this tail raising factor on the CPI of the current month is 1.8 percentage points

the second reason is that among the new price rise factors, it is mainly caused by the rise in the prices of food and residential products, and the contribution rate of this part is about 90%. "The prices of other components of CPI, clothing and household equipment and supplies, have declined, so we judge that the current price rise is still a structural rise."

it is reported that in May, food prices fell on the whole month on month, and consumer prices fell by 0.1% month on month. Food prices fell by 0.5%, of which fresh vegetables fell by 9.8% month on month in May, which played an important role in the decline of CPI

"mainly because with the improvement of the weather, the driving force of price rise driven by the seasonal rise of some agricultural products in the early stage is weakening." Sheng Laiyun said

Dong Xian'an, chief Macro Analyst of Industrial Securities R & D center, believes that the CPI increase in May was slightly higher than 3%, but it is the end of the crossbow. It is expected that it will not exceed 4% when it peaks in July

the expectation of interest rate hike decreases

despite the negative interest rate of actual deposits and other factors, the expectation of interest rate hike is decreasing

the main reason is that with the strengthening of national regulation and control, the factors of international raw material and energy prices imported into China are weakened, and at the same time, the decline in domestic demand will also reduce the pressure on prices to continue to rise

it is understood that the international crude oil price has declined recently, and the national development and Reform Commission lowered the domestic refined oil price on June 1. At the same time, although the iron ore price in May was higher than that in April, Zhang Lin of Lange Steel Information Research Center believed that the domestic steel price had been declining recently, which did not support the rise of international iron ore prices

"the state will strengthen the regulation and control of backward production capacity in June, as well as the major inspection of electricity price law enforcement, which will lead to the reduction of international demand for iron ore and the reduction of domestic steel mills." She said

in May, the ex factory price of industrial products increased by 7.1% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous month. Sheng Laiyun believes that the price of international products fell in May, which will affect the ex factory price of domestic industrial products

he also pointed out that some of the price of PPI will be transmitted to the field of consumer goods, and some will be digested by the reform and innovation of factory technology, but the transmission pressure of PPI on CPI will be reduced. "The trend of PPI is similar to that of CPI, because from the perspective of structural factors, 7.1% and 3.6% are the influence of tail raising factors. In the future, with the third quarter or a longer period of time, the tail raising factors will gradually ease, which will also reduce some pressure on CPI."

he stressed that CPI fell in May month on month, which was opposite to the 0.2% month on month increase in April. "From the perspective of the whole year, the price control is about 3%, which should be said to be basic. Although the pressure is relatively large, through efforts, the macro expected goal is likely to be achieved."

xiongpeng, an analyst at Bank of communications, believes that if there were no other sudden factors and under the timely regulation of policies, the year-on-year increase in CPI in 2010 might be between 3% and 4%, and the year-on-year increase in PPI might be between 5.5% and 6%. PPI may peak before CPI, and the overall inflation level in 2010 will be relatively mild

he suggested that in order to prevent the rise of inflation expectations, monetary policy should still be based on quantitative tools such as open market operation, rather than raising interest rates. At the same time, it is necessary to guide the reasonable growth of money and credit, and flexibly adjust the policy strength according to the changes in the situation. "As the deposit reserve ratio has been at an all-time high, the adjustment space for deposit reserve instruments has narrowed in the short term."