The hottest thinking before the Spring Festival wh

2022-10-01
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Thinking before the Spring Festival where is the steel market going in 2017?

China's most important festival of the year - the Spring Festival is getting closer and closer to us. As a participant in the steel market, while busy finishing before the festival, we are also further thinking about where is the steel market going in 2017? Here, synthesize the views of all parties and try to judge one or two

judgment on fundamentals: at present, all parties basically agree with the pattern of supply and demand declining in 2017. From the demand side, under the regulation of real estate, it is difficult to raise the flag of increasing demand again. Gb/t 5267.2 ⑵ 002 fasteners are coated with non electrolytic zinc sheets. Under the influence of policies, the automobile undertaking intellectual economy and household appliances surged in 2016, and the probability of decline in 2017 is large. Therefore, the demand side in 2017 is bearish. On the supply side, the strict supervision of the medium frequency furnace and the deepening of capacity removal have a substantial impact on the production capacity, and there are also strong weak expectations on the supply side

in the case of both supply and demand, we need to pay attention to the subtle changes in demand, the strength of the policy process, the weakening degree of demand and the weakening degree of the supply side

considering the penetration of national policies into market demand and the advantages of thermoplastic, which is easy to process and form and can be recycled, the demand for automobiles and household appliances in 2017 may be weak first and then strong. In real estate, "houses are for living, not for speculation". From this sentence, we can see that the focus of real estate regulation is to combat speculation and high house prices, That is to say, the impact of real estate on the demand for steel is not as great as we imagined. Instead, it will release more land to stabilize the housing prices in first tier cities in terms of curbing housing prices, thereby driving the demand for some steel. On the supply side, the difficulty of de capacity is also increasing with the deepening of reform. The removal of in-process capacity requires time and space buffer. Considering the time node of the country in the first half of the year, I personally believe that it is likely to be officially implemented in January, that is, in the first quarter, the market is in the stage of weak demand and excessive supply. With the increasing contradiction between supply and demand, there is a great possibility of price decline. For the later period, With the reduction of the supply side and the recovery of demand, the continuous increase of market prices may be larger, and the overall price focus will continue to move up compared with 2016

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